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　A black swan is a highly improbable event with threeprincipal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries amassive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation thatmakes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Theastonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. ForNassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything aboutour world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personallives.
　　Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans untilafter they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is thathumans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focusedon generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and timeand time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know.We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, toovulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, andnot open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the“impossible.”

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three
principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a
massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that
makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The
astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about
our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal
lives. 
　　Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until
after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that
humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused
on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time
and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know.
We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too
vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and
not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the
“impossible.” 
　　For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking
we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the
irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to
surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book,
Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He
offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and
benefiting from them. 
　　Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black
Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly
entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to
tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from
cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan
is a landmark book–itself a black swan.

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BLACK SWAN, THE (EXP)(ISBN=9780812979183)

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