21ST CENTURY ECONOMY, THE(ISBN=9780307387905)pdf/txt下载_在线阅读全文

内容简介

　　A comprehensive guide to understanding today's global economyfrom the author of the bestselling A Beginner's Guide to the WorldEconomy.
　　While reporting on today's world, business and mainstream mediaalike use terms and mention trends that even the savviest consumermay find baffling. In his latest book, Randy Charles Epping usescompelling narratives and insightful analogies to clearly andconcisely explain the rapidly changing way business is done in thetwenty-first century, without a single chart or graph.
　　Epping defines key ideas and commonly used words and phraseslike:
　　 Carbon footprint
　 WTO
　　 Economy of scale
　　NAFTA

A comprehensive guide to understanding today's global economy
from the author of the bestselling A Beginner's Guide to the World
Economy. 
　　While reporting on today's world, business and mainstream media
alike use terms and mention trends that even the savviest consumer
may find baffling. In his latest book, Randy Charles Epping uses
compelling narratives and insightful analogies to clearly and
concisely explain the rapidly changing way business is done in the
twenty-first century, without a single chart or graph. 
　　Epping defines key ideas and commonly used words and phrases
like: 
　　 Carbon footprint 
　      WTO 
　　 Economy of scale 
　　NAFTA 
　　Outsourcing 
　　Epping also illustrates how central banks help navigate global
crises and drive the global economy, discusses the benefits of
Green Economics, shows how trade wars can be avoided, and explains
the virtual economy, where multimillion dollar transactions take
place in the blink of an eye. 
　　Complete with 89 easy-to-master tools for surviving and thriving
in the new global marketplace and an extensive glossary, The 21st
Century Economy—A Beginner's Guide is essential reading for anyone
interested in understanding the complex economy of the world in
which we live.

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作者简介

　　Randy Charles Epping, based in Zurich, Switzerland and S?o Paulo, Brazil, has worked in International Finance for over 25 years, holding management positions in European and American investment banks in London, Geneva, and Zurich. He has a master's degree in International Relations from Yale University, in addition to degrees from the University of Notre Dame and the University of Paris-La Sorbonne. He is currently the manager of IFS Project Management AG, a Switzerland-based international consulting company. He is also the president of the Central Europe Foundation, which provides assistance to students and economic organizations in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition to several other books on the world economy, he has written a novel, Trust, a financial thriller based in Zurich and Budapest. Mr. Epping holds dual U.S. and Swiss citizenship and is fluent in six languages: English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, and Spanish.

媒体评论

　　From Publishers Weekly
　　Epping (A Beginner's Guide to the World Economy) offers a comprehensive guide to the global economy, arguing that economic literacy is a survival imperative in a fusion economy, where what happens in one corner of the globe can have unprecedented impact on the rest of the world. He gives a thorough and easy-to-understand explanation of the rudiments of global finance and provides readers with the tools to be able to make sense of future economic events. Sidebars scattered throughout the book go deeper into such terms and concepts as subprime mortgages, mortgage-backed securities and the difference between budget deficit and trade deficit. Epping also explores macroeconomics, the virtual economy, private equity and public good—and even how to eliminate poverty. A refreshing look at the present economic situation, minus the often confusing graphs, charts and jargon typical in works of this type, this book provides a solid understanding of economic basics, giving readers the much-needed tools they need to stay on top of future developments. (Mar.)
　　Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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　　CHAPTER 1
　　WHAT IS THE FUSION ECONOMY?
　　The converging world economy has created a whole new paradigm forthe 21st century. Global warming, credit crunches, currencymeltdowns, food crises, and trade wars are just a few examples ofhow our everyday lives are being altered by a myriad of forces,many of which are economic in nature. And like nuclear fusion,which joins together hydrogen molecules and releases enormousamounts of energy in the process, the converging global economy isreleasing a lot of new energy-we just need to figure out how to useit.
　　This new fusion economy brings together forces and reactions inways that are impossible to understand using normal linear forms ofapproach. It used to be that we could follow a fairly simple pathto arrive at an economic conclusion: A better product or a moreefficient company meant more productivity, which meant a higherstandard of living for all. But today, things aren't so simple. Howcan we say that economic growth in China or India is a good thingif it increases global pollution or leads to food scarcity? How canwe say that increased access to mortgage financing is a good thingif it entices subprime borrowers to buy houses they can't afford topay for, leading to failing banks in Europe and the United States,stock market crashes in Asia, and a worldwide credit crisis?
　　With hundreds of billions of dollars worth of mortgage-backedsecurities being traded annually, the market for subprime debtbecame, at one point, bigger than the entire market for U.S.Treasury bonds-the biggest bond market in the world. When banks andmortgage companies realized they could pass on the risk of themortgages they were issuing, they became more concerned aboutincreasing volume and less concerned about whether the borrowerscould pay back their loans. Consequently, credit standards wererelaxed and many poor and low-income borrowers were given mortgagesto buy homes-leading to ever-increasing home prices. Many borrowersbought homes they knew they couldn't afford, but assumed thatrising home prices would cover their loan commitments, allowingthem to refinance at a later date, once the house's value had goneup.

CHAPTER 1 
　　WHAT IS THE FUSION ECONOMY? 
　　The converging world economy has created a whole new paradigm for
the 21st century. Global warming, credit crunches, currency
meltdowns, food crises, and trade wars are just a few examples of
how our everyday lives are being altered by a myriad of forces,
many of which are economic in nature. And like nuclear fusion,
which joins together hydrogen molecules and releases enormous
amounts of energy in the process, the converging global economy is
releasing a lot of new energy-we just need to figure out how to use
it. 
　　This new fusion economy brings together forces and reactions in
ways that are impossible to understand using normal linear forms of
approach. It used to be that we could follow a fairly simple path
to arrive at an economic conclusion: A better product or a more
efficient company meant more productivity, which meant a higher
standard of living for all. But today, things aren't so simple. How
can we say that economic growth in China or India is a good thing
if it increases global pollution or leads to food scarcity? How can
we say that increased access to mortgage financing is a good thing
if it entices subprime borrowers to buy houses they can't afford to
pay for, leading to failing banks in Europe and the United States,
stock market crashes in Asia, and a worldwide credit crisis? 
　　With hundreds of billions of dollars worth of mortgage-backed
securities being traded annually, the market for subprime debt
became, at one point, bigger than the entire market for U.S.
Treasury bonds-the biggest bond market in the world. When banks and
mortgage companies realized they could pass on the risk of the
mortgages they were issuing, they became more concerned about
increasing volume and less concerned about whether the borrowers
could pay back their loans. Consequently, credit standards were
relaxed and many poor and low-income borrowers were given mortgages
to buy homes-leading to ever-increasing home prices. Many borrowers
bought homes they knew they couldn't afford, but assumed that
rising home prices would cover their loan commitments, allowing
them to refinance at a later date, once the house's value had gone
up. 
　　When the housing market began to cool, many subprime borrowers
were unable to refinance their loans and were unable to make the
interest payments on their original loans. Delinquencies-borrowers'
failure to make their mortgage payments-began to rise, and the
value of the bonds that were based on subprime mortgages began to
decline. When large numbers of these subprime borrowers started
going bankrupt, the subprime mortgage securities had to be revalued
downward. 
　　In the end, the banks and investment houses around the world that
had bought these mortgage-backed securities were forced to write
off large portions of their debt-up to 80 percent of their original
value in some cases-leading to a credit crisis that spread around
the world as other banks and investment houses refused to provide
the cash that the world's companies and financial institutions need
to keep running. Banks around the world had to be rescued by
cash-strapped governments. In the United States, Lehman Brothers,
one of the largest investment banks in the country, was forced into
bankruptcy, and another investment bank, Bear Stearns, had to be
sold off with help from the U.S. Federal Reserve-for a fraction of
its previous value. AIG, the largest insurance company in the
world, also had to be bailed out by the Federal Reserve. Once the
financial meltdown had started it was impossible to stop. 
　　In addition to financial meltdowns, even cataclysmic events such
as hurricanes and global warming are influenced by the expanding
21st-century economy, which is bringing forces to bear that are
making it impossible to predict what will happen in the future. For
example, the destruction of the Amazon rain forest, primarily for
economic reasons, has led to a sharp increase in the release of
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. And industrial pollution in the
United States, Europe, and China has contributed to the shrinking
of the Arctic ice cap and an unprecedented melting of the
permafrost, releasing even more carbon dioxide and methane gas into
the atmosphere, leading to even more global warming. This
greenhouse effect has led to ever higher temperatures-literally a
“meltdown” in some parts of the world. And no one seems to know
where it will all end. 
　　Even efforts to reduce global warming, such as the promotion of
biofuels, have led to unintended and unforeseen consequences. In
addition to the use of massive amounts of water to produce sugar-or
corn-based biofuels, the reduction of farmland for the production
of food for human consumption led to rising shortages of rice,
corn, and wheat on the world markets, resulting in riots in some
countries and calls for increased protectionism in others. 
　　The converging global economy is also shaking up traditional
patterns of trade and investing. Before the 21st century, for
example, people tended to limit their investments to purchases of
domestic stocks and bonds. They then waited patiently for their
investments to increase in value or provide a safe, fixed income
over time. But in today's fusion economy, our money is being
invested-whether we're aware of it or not-in pension funds,
governments, and banks that buy an increasingly complex array of
securities and investment vehicles. 
　　The 21st-century economy has brought strange new correlations
between investors and between markets. And the results can be
catastrophic. Investors who are losing money in one sector tend to
sell investments in another sector-or another part of the world-to
pay their debts. When stocks fall sharply in the United States and
Europe, for example, emerging-market funds from Brazil to
Bangladesh can decline sharply as investors sell their shares
abroad in order to raise cash to pay for losses at home. Currencies
in previously healthy economies around the world often crash as
speculators rush to safe haven currencies such as dollars and
yen. 
　　It has been said that a butterfly flapping its wings over Tokyo
could cause a rainstorm over New York's Central Park several days
later. The 21st-century economy has taken this linear correlation
to another level. Causes and effects are converging, fusing
together in a complex web that no one-not even the experts-are able
to fully understand. Just as Metcalfe's Law, which says that the
value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of
its users, the expanding global economy is growing and expanding in
ways we are unable to control. 
　　And the speed of change is increasing exponentially. In today's
modern economy, events have an almost immediate effect. If stocks
fall sharply in China, markets around the world plunge instantly.
Political events, such as an assassination or an unexpected
election result-or even random events such as earthquakes or
terrorist attacks-can cause the “invisible hand” of the marketplace
to buy or sell precipitiously. 
　　Like the aforementioned butterfly flapping its wings over Tokyo,
even small investment decisions can affect the global marketplace.
With China holding more than a trillion dollars of U.S. government
securities, any sign that the dollar could lose value in the years
ahead-a decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest
rates, for example, or a move in Congress to force China to revalue
its currency-may set in motion political and economic changes that
could end up dethroning the dollar as the world's preferred reserve
currency. 
　　At the beginning of the 21st century, the euro had already begun
supplanting the dollar as the world's currency of choice-there are
now more euro notes and coins in circulation than dollars. And the
international bond markets have begun issuing more euro-denominated
securities than dollar-denominated securities. Many countries are
now accounting for their purchases and sales of commodities and
other goods on the international marketplace in euros instead of
the almighty greenback-leading to an eventual decline in value of
the dollar as countries sell the U.S. currency to buy others to use
in the global marketplace. 
　　In many ways, old paradigms have become obsolete and a new world
order has been established. Asia's export boom at the beginning of
the 21st century, for example, was mainly based on sales of
products to U.S. consumers. Without them, it was assumed, the
booming Asian economies would slow, engendering economic and
political turmoil. In order to keep the U.S. economy afloat-and in
part to ensure the safety of the foreign reserves sitting in Asian
central banks' vaults-Asian nations became the United States'
biggest creditor. 
　　Trillions of dollars of U.S. government securities have been sold
to mercantilist Asian and oil-rich Middle East nations, allowing
the United States to fund its huge budget and trade deficits. The
decision by foreign investment funds and central banks to subsidize
the U.S. economy-providing the credit to fuel the U.S. housing
bubble, leading eventually to a worldwide financial meltdown
affecting even the cash-rich economies in Asia and the Middle
East-shows how much the balance of power has shifted and how
interconnected the world has become. 
　　In one of the biggest economic revolutions in history, the
expanding 21st-century economy has begun shifting power from the
developed world to the developing world-with Brazil, Russia, India,
and China, the so-called BRIC countries, leading the way. Adjusting
for purchasing power, the economies of the emerging markets have
surpassed the economic output of the developed world. Their
economic machine is already consuming over half of the world's
energy, and they have been responsible for 80 percent of the
increase in oil consumption during the first years of the 21st
century. The export-oriented powerhouses of the developing world
have been able to acquire more than three-quarters of the world's
foreign currency reserves and increase the stock market valuations
of their companies enormously. This led fund manager...

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