内容简介
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principalcharacteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact;and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appearless random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishingsuccess of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For NassimNicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about ourworld, from the rise of religions to events in our own personallives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swansuntil after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, isthat humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should befocused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already knowand time and time again fail to take into consideration what wedon't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimateopportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate,and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who canimagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we foolourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. Werestrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, whilelarge events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, inthis revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about whatwe don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealingwith black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, anduniversal in its applications "The Black Swan" will change the wayyou look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, withwit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathiccommand of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business toprobability theory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book-itself ablack swan. "From the Hardcover edition."