内容简介
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principalcharacteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact;and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appearless random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishingsuccess of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For NassimNicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about ourworld, from the rise of religions to events in our own personallives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans untilafter they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is thathumans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focusedon generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and timeand time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know.We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, toovulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, andnot open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the“impossible.”
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans untilafter they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is thathumans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focusedon generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and timeand time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know.We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, toovulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, andnot open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the“impossible.”