How To Measure Anything Second Edition: Finding The Value Of Intangibles In Business 9780470539392

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  • 版 次:1
  • 页 数:304
  • 字 数:
  • 印刷时间:2010年04月01日
  • 开 本:16开
  • 纸 张:胶版纸
  • 包 装:精装
  • 是否套装:否
  • 国际标准书号ISBN:9780470539392
作者:Douglas W. Hubbard 著出版社:Wiley出版时间:2010年04月 
内容简介
Now updated with new research and even more intuitiveexplanations, a demystifying explanation of how managers can informthemselves to make less risky, more profitable business decisionsThis insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measurethose things in your own business that, until now, you may haveconsidered "immeasurable," including customer satisfaction,organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI.Adds even more intuitive explanations of powerful measurementmethods and shows how they can be applied to areas such as riskmanagement and customer satisfaction Continues to boldly assertthat any perception of "immeasurability" is based on certainpopular misconceptions about measurement and measurement methodsShows the common reasoning for calling something immeasurable, andsets out to correct those ideas Offers practical methods formeasuring a variety of "intangibles" Adds recent research,especially in regards to methods that seem like measurement, butare in fact a kind of "placebo effect" for management - andexplains how to tell effective methods from management mythologyWritten by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard-creator of AppliedInformation Economics-"How to Measure Anything, Second Edition"illustrates how the author has used his approach across variousindustries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, illdefined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using provenmethods.
作者简介

DOUGLAS W. HUBBARD is the inventor of Applied Information Economics (AIE), a measurement methodology that has been used in IT portfolios, entertainment media, military logistics, R&D portfolios, and many more areas where big decisions are based on factors that seem difficult or impossible to measure. He is an internationally recognized expert in metrics, decision analysis, and risk management, and is a popular speaker at numerous conferences. He has written articles for InformationWeek, CIO Enterprise, Architecture Boston, Analytics and OR/MS Today and is also the author of The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It.

目  录
Preface xi Acknowledgments xv SECTION I MEASUREMENT: THESOLUTION EXISTS 1 CHAPTER 1 Intangibles and the Challenge 3 Yes, IMean Anything 5 The Proposal 6 CHAPTER 2 An Intuitive MeasurementHabit: Eratosthenes, Enrico, and Emily 9 How an Ancient GreekMeasured the Size of Earth 10 Estimating: Be Like Fermi 11Experiments: Not Just for Adults 13 Notes on What to Learn fromEratosthenes, Enrico, and Emily 18 CHAPTER 3 The Illusion ofIntangibles: Why Immeasurables Aren't 21 The Concept of Measurement22 The Object of Measurement 26 The Methods of Measurement 28Economic Objections to Measurement 35 The Broader Objection to theUsefulness of "Statistics" 37 Ethical Objections to Measurement 39Toward a Universal Approach to Measurement 41 SECTION II BEFORE YOUMEASURE 45 CHAPTER 4 Clarifying the Measurement Problem 47 Gettingthe Language Right: What "Uncertainty" and "Risk" Really Mean 49Examples of Clarification: Lessons for Business from, of AllPlaces, Government 51 CHAPTER 5 Calibrated Estimates: How Much DoYou Know Now ? 57 Calibration Exercise 59 Further Improvements onCalibration 64 Conceptual Obstacles to Calibration 65 The Effectsof Calibration 71 CHAPTER 6 Measuring Risk through Modeling 79 HowNot to Measure Risk 79 Real Risk Analysis: The Monte Carlo 81 AnExample of the Monte Carlo Method and Risk 82 Tools and OtherResources for Monte Carlo Simulations 91 The Risk Paradox and theNeed for Better Risk Analysis 93 CHAPTER 7 Measuring the Value ofInformation 99 The Chance of Being Wrong and the Cost of BeingWrong: Expected Opportunity Loss 100 The Value of Information forRanges 103 The Imperfect World: The Value of Partial UncertaintyReduction 107 The Epiphany Equation: How the Value of InformationChanges Everything 110 Summarizing Uncertainty, Risk, andInformation Value: The First Measurements 114 SECTION IIIMEASUREMENT METHODS 117 CHAPTER 8 The Transition: From What toMeasure to How to Measure 119 Tools of Observation: Introduction tothe Instrument of Measurement 120 Decomposition 124 SecondaryResearch: Assuming You Weren't the First to Measure It 127 TheBasic Methods of Observation: If One Doesn't Work, Try the Next 128Measure Just Enough 131 Consider the Error 132 Choose and Designthe Instrument 136 CHAPTER 9 Sampling Reality: How Observing SomeThings Tells Us about All Things 139 Building an Intuition forRandom Sampling: The Jelly Bean Example 141 A Little about LittleSamples: A Beer Brewer's Approach 142 Statistical Significance: AMatter of Degree 145 When Outliers Matter Most 148 The EasiestSample Statistics Ever 150 A Biased Sample of Sampling Methods 153Measure to the Threshold 162 Experiment 165 Seeing Relationships inthe Data: An Introduction to Regression Modeling 169 One Thing WeHaven't Discussed-and Why 174 CHAPTER 10 Bayes: Adding to What YouKnow Now 177 Simple Bayesian Statistics 178 Using Your NaturalBayesian Instinct 181 Heterogeneous Benchmarking: A "Brand Damage"Application 187 Bayesian Inversion for Ranges: An Overview 190Bayesian Inversion for Ranges: The Details 193 The Lessons of Bayes196 SECTION IV BEYOND THE BASICS 201 CHAPTER 11 Preference andAttitudes: The Softer Side of Measurement 203 Observing Opinions,Values, and the Pursuit of Happiness 203 A Willingness to Pay:Measuring Value via Trade-offs 207 Putting It All on the Line:Quantifying Risk Tolerance 211 Quantifying Subjective Trade-offs:Dealing with Multiple Conflicting Preferences 214 Keeping the BigPicture in Mind: Profit Maximization versus Purely SubjectiveTrade-offs 218 CHAPTER 12 The Ultimate Measurement Instrument:Human Judges 221 Homo absurdus : The Weird Reasons behind OurDecisions 222 Getting Organized: A Performance Evaluation Example227 Surprisingly Simple Linear Models 228 How to Standardize AnyEvaluation: Rasch Models 230 Removing Human Inconsistency: The LensModel 234 Panacea or Placebo?: Questionable Methods of Measurement238 Comparing the Methods 246 CHAPTER 13 New MeasurementInstruments for Management 251 The Twenty-First-Century Tracker:Keeping Tabs with Technology 251 Measuring the World: The Internetas an Instrument 254 Prediction Markets: A Dynamic Aggregation ofOpinions 257 CHAPTER 14 A Universal Measurement Method: AppliedInformation Economics 265 Bringing the Pieces Together 266 Case:The Value of the System that Monitors Your Drinking Water 270 Case:Forecasting Fuel for the Marine Corps 275 Ideas for GettingStarted: A Few Final Examples 281 Summarizing the Philosophy 287APPENDIX Calibration Tests (and Their Answers) 289 Index 299

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