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　　《Boao Forum for Asia Progress of Asian Economic Integration Annual Report 2013》为公众提供有关亚洲经济一体化进程的*信息和观点是博鳌亚洲论坛一贯秉承的传统。我非常感谢由不同国家和地区经济学家所组成的国际化团队为完成本报告所进行的艰苦努力和创新性的工作。我们希望本报告与以往的报告一样，能够引起各界对于亚洲经济一体化进程的关注，参与对这一进程的讨论，贡献自己的观点和建议。

目　　录

ACRONYMES
AC KN OWLE DG E M E NTS
FOREWORD
LISTOF CONTRIBUTORS
Chapter 1 Development Trends oflnternationaITrade and Investment inAsia
1.1 Growth Path ofTrade in Asia
1.2 The Development Trend of the Sino-Japanese Trade andInvestment
1.3 Rapid Growth ofTrade between China and ASEAN

Chapter 2 Foreign Trade Integration in Asia
2.1 Trade Dependence among Asian Economies
2.2 Trends ofTrade in Asia: Intra-regional and Inter-regionalFlows
2.3 RecentTrends in Portfolio Investment in Asia
2.4 Foreign DirectlnvestmentTrends ofAsia

ACRONYMES 
AC KN OWLE DG E M E NTS 
FOREWORD 
LISTOF CONTRIBUTORS 
Chapter 1 Development Trends oflnternationaITrade and Investment in
Asia 
1.1 Growth Path ofTrade in Asia 
1.2 The Development Trend of the Sino-Japanese Trade and
Investment 
1.3 Rapid Growth ofTrade between China and ASEAN 
 
Chapter 2 Foreign Trade Integration in Asia 
2.1 Trade Dependence among Asian Economies 
2.2 Trends ofTrade in Asia: Intra-regional and Inter-regional
Flows 
2.3 RecentTrends in Portfolio Investment in Asia 
2.4 Foreign DirectlnvestmentTrends ofAsia 
2.5 Progress of RegionaITrade Liberalization in Services 
2.6 Steady Dependence oflntra-Asia Tourism 
2.7 The Progress of Financial Integration in Asia 
 
Chapter 3 Prospects, Challenges and Collective Gains of
China-Japan-Korea 
Free Trade Area 
3.1 Evolution ofChina-Japan-Korea FreeTrade Area 
3.2 Trade Creation Effect of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade
Area 
3.3 Sensitive Areasin Negotiation ofChina-Japan-Korea FTA 
3.4 High-quality or Low-quality FreeTrade Agreement 
 
Chapter 4 The Future of the ASEAN+ Structure: Pathways to
Integration　... 
4.1 Introduction 
4.2 Post-crisis Output Growth ofAsia 
4.3 Bottom-upApproach 
4.4 Top-down Approach 
 
Chapter 5 Greater Mekong Sub-regional Economic Cooperation 
5.1 The Background of Greater Mekong Sub-regional Economic
Cooperation 
5.2 The Status and Features of the Greater Mekong Sub-regional
Economic Cooperation 
5.3 The New Trend and Practical Problems of GMS Economic
Cooperation 
5.4 The Impacts ofGMS Cooperation on Regional Progress 
 
Important Events of the Asian Integration 
REFERENCES

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　　The "China+ l "strategy
　　While there may be a growing trend of Japanese ompanies"evacuating" from China， this choice is ot being made lightly. Whenforeign enterprises irst enter the Chinese market， they enter intoseveral long-term agreements with the Chinese overnment. Forexample， if the foreign enterprise withdraws from China， they mustensure local mployment and economic stability， pay penalty fees forland clean-up costs， plant relocation and ersonnel placement.Because these costs can be very expensive， possibly more expensivethan a new nvestment， this decision can be a difFiculty.
　　If a foreign enterprise does decide to move， t will most likelymove to another country in Southeast Asia. But this too can be adifficult ecision. Capital transfers to some countries n SoutheastAsia can be risky and though the ountries may be pro-Japanese， theymay still be
　　politically unstable with poor infrastructure or ow levels ofhuman capital， with relatively smaller arkets than in China.Thedata shows that， in 2010 hina's export volume had surpassedGermany's to ecome number one in the world.ln 2012， a prompttatistical report of says that China's total import and mportvolume for the first time surpassed that of he US. Based on theabove， Japanese companies ave begun to implement the "China+l"Strategy. n this strategy， Japanese companies maintain their urrentscale of enterprises and investments into hina while at the sametime increasing investments nto other countries and regions. Bydiversifying cross， and increasing its investments in Southeastsia， Japan can reduce its risk. Concluding remarks e above analysesshow that the Sino-iapanese conomic and trade relationship is ahighly nterdependent and mutually beneficial one. herefore， therecan be no win-lose solution， but only a lose-lose， or win-winsolution. And， consequently， nly improving Sino-iapanese relationscan induce　win-win result. China's 40 year development annot beseparated from its friendly international elationships， especiallythe role of the mutually eneficial Sino-Japanese relationship._lapan， in the ame ways， cannot interpret its success or failuresutside of contributing world events. Whether t is Japan's brushwith the brink of economic ollapse， its post-war economic recoveryand evelopment which resulted in it becoming the world's secondlargest economic power， its decline ue to decreased trade after thePlaza Accord or urrent recovery from the "Heisei Recession"， thevents are linked with the maintenance， or lack of maintenance， ofpeaceful relations with economic rading partners.

The "China+ l "strategy 
　　While there may be a growing trend of Japanese ompanies
"evacuating" from China， this choice is ot being made lightly. When
foreign enterprises irst enter the Chinese market， they enter into
several long-term agreements with the Chinese overnment. For
example， if the foreign enterprise withdraws from China， they must
ensure local mployment and economic stability， pay penalty fees for
land clean-up costs， plant relocation and ersonnel placement.
Because these costs can be very expensive， possibly more expensive
than a new nvestment， this decision can be a difFiculty. 
　　If a foreign enterprise does decide to move， t will most likely
move to another country in Southeast Asia. But this too can be a
difficult ecision. Capital transfers to some countries n Southeast
Asia can be risky and though the ountries may be pro-Japanese， they
may still be 
　　politically unstable with poor infrastructure or ow levels of
human capital， with relatively smaller arkets than in China.The
data shows that， in 2010 hina's export volume had surpassed
Germany's to ecome number one in the world.ln 2012， a prompt
tatistical report of says that China's total import and mport
volume for the first time surpassed that of he US. Based on the
above， Japanese companies ave begun to implement the "China+l"
Strategy. n this strategy， Japanese companies maintain their urrent
scale of enterprises and investments into hina while at the same
time increasing investments nto other countries and regions. By
diversifying cross， and increasing its investments in Southeast
sia， Japan can reduce its risk. Concluding remarks e above analyses
show that the Sino-iapanese conomic and trade relationship is a
highly nterdependent and mutually beneficial one. herefore， there
can be no win-lose solution， but only a lose-lose， or win-win
solution. And， consequently， nly improving Sino-iapanese relations
can induce　win-win result. China's 40 year development annot be
separated from its friendly international elationships， especially
the role of the mutually eneficial Sino-Japanese relationship.
_lapan， in the ame ways， cannot interpret its success or failures
utside of contributing world events. Whether t is Japan's brush
with the brink of economic ollapse， its post-war economic recovery
and evelopment which resulted in it becoming the world's second
largest economic power， its decline ue to decreased trade after the
Plaza Accord or urrent recovery from the "Heisei Recession"， the
vents are linked with the maintenance， or lack of maintenance， of
peaceful relations with economic rading partners. 
　　According to the growth theory， a country's long- erm economic
growth must rely on technological progress and a high level of
human capital accumulation. In regards to this， the Chinese
government has been stressing the fundamental shift of its
development mode from a high-pollutant emission economy to a
low-carbon and green economy. However， this shift is heavily
dependent on technological innovations nd environmental
technologies which Japan， the current world leader in these
technologies. （Figure 1.8）. Therefore， if hostilities continue，
both countries will face economic difficulties which will result in
decreased economic growth， which is the lose-lose situation that no
one wants to see. 
　　Ultimately， the hope is that Sino-Japanese relations can return
to friendly positions and that these powers can continue to lead
Asian economics s an example of how world leading economies can
work together to further develop the world conomy. 
　　……

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